Data from the Office of Personnel Management indicates that costs for the program could climb to $15.1 billion by March 2026. This expenditure carries a significant opportunity cost: the funds could have covered 3.6 billion school lunches or the annual salaries of 149,000 public school teachers. Agencies have continued offering new rounds of the program, extending the taxpayer burden through September 2026.
The impact extends beyond direct payments. The Internal Revenue Service saw a 25% drop in staffing last year, a reduction the Budget Lab at Yale University projects will lead to $197.7 billion in lost tax revenue over a decade. The Department of Defense, Treasury, and Agriculture have also faced sharp personnel declines, forcing some agencies to scramble to rehire staff deemed essential for national programs.
Public Citizen researcher Douglas Pasternak described the administration’s downsizing strategy as both costly and dangerous. He noted that the departure of these workers has left critical functions unmanaged, creating risks that remain uncaptured by the program's direct financial price tag.




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