US Leading Economic Index Climbs as Growth Outlook Stabilizes

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in over four years. While the index suggests the economy will continue to expand, this momentum relies heavily on business investment in artificial intelligence. Conversely, elevated living costs threaten to dampen household spending, particularly among lower- and middle-income demographics. The organization maintains its forecast for 1.9% real GDP growth for both 2026 and 2027.

The Coincident Economic Index, which tracks current conditions, also climbed 0.2% to 114.8. This index, comprised of metrics like payroll employment and industrial production, has expanded 0.5% over the first half of the year. Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic Index reached 120.4, reflecting a 0.8% increase since January. Despite these gains, the lagging index remains slightly below previous projections due to downward revisions earlier this year.