ICE Raids Found to Trigger Job Losses for US-Born Workers

The research, authored by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East, found no evidence that the removal of immigrant labor creates a vacuum filled by domestic workers. Instead, the study reveals a negative ripple effect throughout the economy. For every 1,000 immigrant men detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the data shows a 0.54% decline in employment among US-born men in the same area. Researchers attribute this to a breakdown in production chains where immigrant and native-born labor are complementary, combined with a sharp reduction in local economic activity.

The Immigration Research Initiative (IRI) further clarified this mechanism, noting that the chilling effect forces many authorized workers to withdraw from the labor market out of fear. When businesses lose essential staff, they struggle to maintain operations, leading to broader job losses. In the construction sector, for example, a shortage of immigrant laborers often halts projects, resulting in fewer job opportunities for US-born electricians and plumbers. The study underscores that employers are not raising wages to attract domestic workers to fill these gaps; rather, they are scaling back production or shuttering local businesses as consumer spending drops.