Atradius Sees Global Growth Stabilizing as Middle East Truce Holds

The report projects global GDP growth will slow to 2.4% in 2026, a decline from the 3.0% recorded in 2025, before a projected recovery to 3.1% in 2027. Atradius Chief Economist John Lorié noted that while the conflict initially spiked energy costs, the ongoing boom in technology and AI investment has provided a necessary cushion for the broader economy. Strong capital expenditure in cloud infrastructure, data centers, and semiconductors remains a primary pillar of growth, particularly within the United States.

Central banks are navigating these disruptions through divergent monetary paths. The European Central Bank has opted for rate hikes to combat inflation, whereas the Federal Reserve has maintained higher rates, delaying easing measures. China remains an outlier, sustaining a loose monetary stance to bolster domestic demand. This fragmentation underscores the uneven impact of the geopolitical crisis on major economies.

Trade growth is expected to remain sluggish, forecast to stay below 2% throughout 2026 due to persistent policy uncertainty and weakened import demand. However, the outlook remains highly sensitive to regional stability. Atradius warns that a re-escalation of the conflict—specifically a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—would trigger a sharp surge in energy prices. Under such a downside scenario, global GDP would likely contract to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, pushing major advanced economies into a recession.